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Ideal forex investment tips that help overcome debt

2011-04-06T23:57:00.002+10:00

Trading in the forex market can become very confusing for the new trader. You may loose great amounts of money in this market if you do not be cautious. If you are in debt and are investing so that you can earn extra money and opt for debt reduction, then you must consider a few tips that may be of some help to you.

Some of the tips that can help you get better results and pay off your debts quickly are as follows.

1. Get a demo first: One of the many advantages of the forex market is that the traders allow you to trade for free before you trade with money. This proves to be very beneficial as you get a real time access to the market even without actually risking any of your money. Thus, you do not risk anything at all and get to know about the market.

The forex market has a very high leverage rate. Thus you can make a lot of money in this market and you can also lose a lot of money. So it becomes very important that you have a clear knowledge of the market and also decide on your trading strategy. You should always get a demo first of the trading strategies that you want to implement. Trying them would mean that you will know what will be their outcome. So you can learn from your mistakes and only use those trading strategies that will be successful. This in turn increases your chances of earning more money and thus making enough to pay off your debts.

2. Look for a good broker: It is very important to have a good broker. This is because he or she is the difference between losing or making money. Try to get a broker who has been in business for a few years. It is essential to do your homework before you choose a broker because there have been many broker scams that have lead to the loss of a lot of money. If possible you should also try to get a broker who offers a lot of convenience features. If your broker offers deposit methods that are convenient for you, then this will make it very easy for you. Try to get a good broker so that you earn a lot of profits so that you can pay off your debts with the excess that you have.

3. Have patience: One of the most important attributes of being a Forex trader is patience. You must be very patient with your investments. It is not advisable to make all your money at once. You should rather think of building your money gradually. Try to have a consistent money management strategy. Your strategy should be such that only 1 to 3 percent of your total trading capital should be at risk. This is helpful as you do not have to put all at risk.

These are a few tips that you can make use of when investing in the forex market. They may not completely ensure your profit but that will help you get a grip in the forex investment market.

CHF/USD Daily Signal Trend

2010-02-10T01:31:00.001+11:00

The dollar was unable to make any move towards resistance in the 1.08 region against the franc during Monday and, although still broadly resilient, it retreated to the 1.0720 region on wider franc gains. The Euro retreated again with lows below 1.4650 against the Swiss currency.

The underlying market forces are still for a battle between fears over National Bank intervention to weaken the Swiss currency and defensive demand for the franc triggered by the persistent lack of confidence in the Euro-zone. These conflicting pressures are liable to continue in the near term and high intra-day volatility will remain a key threat.

By: Darrell Jobman

GBP/USD Daily Signal Trend

2010-02-10T01:26:00.006+11:00

Sterling remained on the defensive against the dollar during Monday and struggled to rebound far from 8-month lows near 1.5520, although there was a move back to the 1.56 region. Sterling also found some support close to the 0.88 level against the Euro.

Government-debt fears remained an important element in the markets with fears that political stalemate could be an important factor in delaying measures to curb the deficit. The persistent fears surrounding Europe could offer some degree of relative protection to the currency, but will also tend to highlight UK vulnerability.

The latest economic data was mixed as the RICS reported a further increase in house prices for January while there was a weaker retail sales report from the BRC. The spending data is liable to have a bigger impact given doubts over the economic recovery and forthcoming reports will be watched closely.

By: Darrell Jobman

GBP/USD Daily Signal Trend

2009-11-18T01:11:00.002+11:00

Increased speculation of a policy shift and a resumption of Chinese yuan appreciation provided some degree of background yen support on expectations of regional currency gains, although the immediate impact was limited.

Sterling continued to exhibit volatility during the week. There were sharp losses following the Bank of England inflation report, but it maintained a generally firm tone for the week as a whole with persistent Euro selling above the 0.90 level while Sterling was able to regain the 1.66 level against the dollar.

The latest RICS house-price and BRC retail sales data was stronger than expected, maintaining the recent trend of generally favourable data. Sterling was, however, undermined on Tuesday by a warning from Ratings agency Fitch that Sterling was vulnerable to a credit-rating downgrade.

In its quarterly inflation report, the Bank of England forecast that inflation would rise significantly over the next few months, but would decline to be slightly below the 2.0% target on a two-year view if interest rates were at expected market levels.

Bank Governor King was again generally downbeat on the economic prospects warning that would need to be a prolonged period of balance-sheet adjustment. King also suggested that the bank was open to all possibilities on quantitative easing, which increased speculation that there could be a further expansion while the Governor also repeated recent comments that Sterling’s decline was helpful.

EUR/ USD Daily Technical Trend

2009-08-26T03:46:00.003+10:00

The US New York Empire manufacturing index strengthened to 12.1 in August from -0.6 the previous month which provided some degree of reassurance over the manufacturing sector. The Philadelphia Fed index also improved to 4.2 from -7.5 the previous month, maintaining the positive tone.

In contrast, the jobless claims data was weaker than expected with initial claims rising to 576,000 froma revised 561,000 the previous month while continuing claims also increased. The jobless data does lag behind the economy as a whole and the manufacturing data has been firmer, but there were fears that the economy will stall quickly under the weight of credit contraction and consumer debt levels.

The construction-related data was slightly weaker than expected with housing starts edging slightly lower to an annual rate of 0.58mn from 0.59mn the previous month while permits were also slightly lower at 0.56mn. The headline data was held back by notable weakness in the multiple-units sector while there was still evidence of an underlying improvement in conditions.

The latest US Treasury capital flows data recorded net long-term inflows of US$90.7bn for June after revised net outflows of US$19.4bn the previous month. Overall capital flows were still negative for the month and monthly data will inevitably be volatile.There was strong buying of US Treasuries for the month which may ease fears over reserve diversification to some extent, although there was a decline in Chinese holdings over the month.

The Euro was unsettled temporarily by a sharp drop in Chinese equity prices which undermined international risk appetite while there was also a sharp fall in German producer prices which reinforced speculation over deflation pressures.

The German ZEW business sentiment index rose to 56.1 in August from 39.5, the highest headline reading for over two years, although ZEW officials were cautious over the outlook due to the underlying vulnerabilities. There were also further concerns over the threat of a credit crunch developing over the next few months which limited any positive Euro impact.

The Euro resisted more than limited selling pressure during the week and was able to secure modest advance as global risk appetite improved from initial lows. The Euro consolidated just above 1.42 against the dollar.

GBP/USD Daily Signal Trend

2009-07-31T01:38:00.002+10:00

Sterling was unable to regain the 1.65 level against the dollar on Wednesday and dipped to lows around 1.6350 as the US currency secured wider support.

Global equity markets were still relatively firm during the European session with banking shares rising and this provided some degree of protection for the UK currency. It remains the case that Sterling will be much more vulnerable if there is a serious sell-off in equity markets.

The mortgage approvals data recorded a small increase for June which pushed the total to a 15-month high. The bank lending data was very weak with the increase in lending held to GBP0.4bn for June which was the lowest since the series was introduced in 1993.

The weakness in lending will maintain underlying fears over the economy and will tend to unsettle Sterling over the next few weeks. The UK currency was still resilient against the Euro with gains to 0.8575.

EUR/USD Daily Signal Trend

2009-07-31T01:37:00.002+10:00

The Euro was unable to push back above the 1.42 level on Wednesday and weakened steadily during the day on a series of unfavourable developments.

The currency was undermined initially by a spike in risk aversion as the Shanghai equity markets declined sharply by over 5%. Commodity prices wee also sharply weaker during the day which was a negative influence.

The Euro-zone data was weaker than expected with a provisional 0.1% drop in German consumer prices for July to give an annual 0.6% decline. The IFO institute also reported that lending was more restrictive during July which will maintain fears over a credit crunch in the economy.

The headline US durable goods orders data was weaker than expected with a 2.5% decline for June, although the underlying data was firmer which should not have a major impact.

The Fed’s Beige Bok reported that the downturn was easing in most districts and was slightly more optimistic than the previous report. There were, however, still very important areas of weakness in the report with labour markets being reported as being very soft while there was also a deterioration in the commercial property sector. Bank lending also declined in most categories which will maintain speculation that any recovery in the economy will stall very quickly.

The jobless claims data on Thursday and GDP data on Friday will be important in determining near-term sentiment with increased defensive dollar demand if there are weak releases. The Euro dipped to lows near 1.40 in US trading before a slight corrective recovery.

EUR/USD Daily Signal Trend

2009-07-23T01:12:00.005+10:00

Euro maintained a firm tone in European trading on Tuesday and challenged levels above 1.4250 in early US trading, but was unable to sustain the gains.

In his semi-annual testimony to Congress, Fed Chairman Bernanke stated that there were tentative signs of stabilisation in the economy and that the pace of decline appeared to have slowed significantly.

Bernanke also re-iterated that the bank did have a credible exit strategy from the ultra-loose interest rate policy. The bank is clearly taken this aspect of policy very seriously, especially as there was a article on exit strategies in today’s Wall Street Journal ahead of the Fed testimony.

These comments illustrate that the Fed is very sensitive to the issue of maintaining confidence in the US assets, particularly the Treasury market and dollar.

Nevertheless, Bernanke also stated that the Fed would maintain a highly accommodative monetary policy for an extended period and there is still very little chance of a near-term tightening. The Fed chief’s comments will again be watched closely on Wednesday with a particular sensitivity to any comments on the dollar.

Risk appetite faded to some extent following Bernanke’s comments, especially after the warnings on the commercial real-estate market. There was also fresh speculation that US lender CIT would file for bankruptcy despite the US$3.0bn credit line secured early in the week. From lows near 1.4280, the dollar recovered back to the 1.4180 region before consolidating near 1.4220 as the dollar was unable to secure sustained support.

GBP/USD Daily Signal Trend

2009-07-23T01:12:00.004+10:00

The UK currency was unable to hold above 1.65 against the dollar in early Europe on Tuesday and weakened towards the 1.6420 region.

The latest government borrowing data provided some degree of initial relief with a figure of GBP13bn for June after a revised GBP18.6bn the previous month and compared with expectations of a GBP16bn shortfall.

This was still sharply higher than the GBP7.5bn recorded the previous year and overall debt fears will remain an important issue as the budget deficit is heading towards 14% of GDP for the current fiscal year.

Bank of England Deputy Governor Bean stated that second-quarter GDP was also certainly negative. Markets will remain very sensitive to growth considerations as any evidence that a recovery is stalling would reinforce debt fears and increase downward pressure on the currency.

USD/JPY Daily Trend Signal

2009-07-23T01:12:00.000+10:00

Asian equity markets remained firm on Tuesday as confidence remained generally robust, although the yen was able to resist further selling pressure with a test of dollar support below the 94 region. In part, this was due to caution ahead of Bernanke’s testimony, although the trend also suggest some underlying support for the Japanese currency.

In the latest Bank of Japan minutes, one member called for an exit strategy for the current monetary policies, although there is unlikely to be any near-term move to change policy given that corporate stresses are still severe which will limit the impact.

Risk appetite temporarily stumbled again later in the US session and the yen strengthened back to the 93.30 level against the dollar while it also strengthened to 132.50 against the Euro before losing ground again following favourable earnings from Apple.

GBP/USD Daily Signal Trend

2009-07-16T00:53:00.001+10:00

The economic data released overnight on Tuesday was stronger than expected with an annual increase in retail sales according to the latest BRC survey. The RICS housing-market survey also strengthened to a 21-month high as 18.1% of respondents reported falling prices compared with 43.9% the previous month. The firm data helped Sterling hold above the 1.62 level against the dollar in early European trading with a push towards 1.63.

The headline UK inflation rate fell to 1.8% in June from 2.2% previously which was in line with market expectations while the retail prices index fell 1.6% over the year. The data is liable to increase speculation that the Bank of England could move to expand the quantitative easing. The UK currency still proved resilient and consolidated above 1.63 in New York with the Euro unable to regain the 0.86 level.

The latest labour-market data will be watched very closely on Wednesday and is liable to have a greater impact on currency sentiment, especially if there is a higher than expected rise in the claimant count.

By: Darrell Jobman

USD/JPY Daily Trend Signal

2009-07-16T00:46:00.002+10:00

Asian equity markets were resilient on Tuesday which curbed immediate yen demand, but confidence is still liable to be very fragile.

The Bank of Japan is unlikely to adjust interest rates at Wednesday’s policy meeting. There will be pressure for the bank to extend the quantitative easing and this may weaken the yen slightly, although global risk conditions will still tend to dominate and the Japanese currency weakened to the 93.20 region on Tuesday.

The dollar fluctuated around the 93 level in Europe with the US currency unable to make a challenge on significant resistance levels before pushing to 93.60 following better than expected results from Intel.

By: Darrell Jobman

EUR/USD Signal Trend Analysis

2009-07-16T00:42:00.000+10:00

After a challenge on 1.40 in early Europe on Tuesday, the Euro dipped after a weaker than expected German business confidence survey with the ZEW index falling to 39.5 for July from 44.8 the previous month. This was the first monthly decline sine October and, although the data is still substantially higher than in late 2008, the decline will tend to reinforce fears that the Euro-zone economy will not be able to secure a convincing recovery.

The US retail sales data failed to have a substantial impact as it was close to expectations. Headline sales rose 0.6% in June after a 0.5% increase the previous month while there was a 0.3% underlying increase in sales. Overall confidence in the economy will still be fragile and the latest IBD consumer confidence index also recorded a monthly decline.

The producer prices data was stronger than expected with a 1.8% monthly increase while core prices rose 0.5% and Treasury yields edged higher following the data. In this context, the consumer inflation data could trigger additional volatility on Wednesday.

US Treasury Geithner looked to promote a strong dollar in public comments as markets continue to fret over the risk of long-term diversification away from the US currency.

The Euro again looked to challenge 1.40 after the US data with risk appetite supported by stronger than expected second-quarter earnings from Goldman Sachs. The currency was still unable to make any headway above this level and dipped to lows near 1.3910 in New York as European currencies in general came under selling pressure before rallying back to 1.3960.

By: Darrell Jobman

USD/JPY Daily Trend Signal

2009-07-14T00:36:00.006+10:00

The Japanese wholesale prices data was weaker than expected with a decline of 6.6% in the year to May which reinforced the underlying deflation fears. The data will also maintain pressure for the Bank of Japan and Finance Ministry to combat sources of downward pressure on prices. In this environment, there will be strong reservations over the allowing sharp yen gains and there is the potential for further verbal intervention to limit currency advances.

The yen will still gain some very important support from unease over global economic trends and a lack of risk appetite. The yen continued to fluctuate around the 93 level against the dollar in Asian trading on Friday with an apparent lack of appetite for Japanese funds investing overseas significant in supporting the yen.

As risk appetite remained weaker, the yen strengthened to a high of 91.80 against the dollar and 127.80 against the Euro in New York. There was a retreat later in US trading, but the yen still secured its largest weekly gain against the dollar since October.

By: Darrell Jobman

AUD/USD Daily Trend Signal

2009-07-14T00:36:00.004+10:00

The Australian dollar has still been under-performing on the crosses and was unable to make any headway above the 0.7850 level. There was a renewed retreat to just below 0.78 in local trading on Friday with evidence of significant selling against the yen undermining the currency.

Caution towards risk is still liable to prevail in the short term and the Australian currency weakened to lows below the 0.7750 level in early New York before securing a tentative correction. The currency will still find it difficult to gain any significant recovery unless there is renewed confidence in the global economy.

By: Darrell Jobman

EUR/USD Daily Trend Signal

2009-07-14T00:35:00.002+10:00

The Euro was unable to hold above the 1.40 level in Asia on Friday and weakened significantly in European trading. Risk appetite was generally weaker which curbed immediate demand for the Euro and also triggered defensive demand for the US currency.

The Euro was also undermined by renewed fears over the outlook for Eastern Europe and the regional banking sector, although confidence was underpinned to some extent by a better than expected reading for French industrial production.

The US University of Michigan consumer confidence data was weaker than expected with a decline to 64.6 in July from a revised 70.8 the previous month. The decline will reinforce fears that the economy will not be able to sustain any improvement as rising unemployment saps confidence and spending. The retail sales data will be watched closely next week for further evidence on spending levels.

The US trade deficit was narrower than expected with a dip to US$26.0bn from a revised US$28.8bn the previous month. Imports continued to decline while there was a small increase in exports which pushed the deficit to the lowest level for nine years.

The narrower trade deficit will provide some degree of support to second-quarter GDP while the deficit decline will also lessen the need for capital inflows.

The dollar was unable to sustain gains beyond 1.39 in US trading and dipped to 1.3965 as markets were still unable to break major technical levels.

By: Darrell Jobman

GBP/USD Daily Trend Analysis

2009-07-10T01:23:00.001+10:00

Sterling was trapped below the 1.62 level against the dollar during Wednesday and dipped to test one-month lows below 1.60 in US trading before a recovery. Sterling was weaker against the Euro, but recovered from lows near 0.8670.

The Halifax house price index recorded a 0.5% decline in prices for June for a 15.0% annual decline which suggested that the underlying pressures have eased, at least on a short-term basis.

The government announced revised plans for the banking sector, although there was a lack of detail and the impact was limited with global trends still important for direction. Sterling was still unsettled by underlying fears over the debt situation if the economy fails to improve.

The Bank of England policy decision will be watched closely on Thursday and any expansion of quantitative easing would tend to weaken Sterling, possibly sharply.

By: Darrell Jobman

USD/JPY Signal Trend Analysis

2009-07-10T01:22:00.001+10:00

The Japanese core machinery orders data was significantly weaker than expected with a 3.0% decline for May following a 5.4% decline the previous month and this pushed orders to the lowest level for over 20 years. Although there was some recovery in key manufacturing orders, there was evidence of a notable deterioration in the services sector. The data will maintain pressure for the quantitative easing programme to be extended.

The data also sparked a further deterioration in risk appetite and this helped push the yen stronger with the currency strengthening to a six-week high against major currencies as the Nikkei index also weakened to the lowest level since late May. The dollar was near 94.25 in early Europe on Wednesday.

The dollar lost support near the 94 level in US trading and then weakened very sharply with lows below the 92 level before a recovery to 92.80. The Japanese currency also strengthened rapidly against the Euro and Sterling as technical levels were broken. There will be an increasing threat of verbal intervention to restrain the yen.

By: Darrell Jobman

EUR/USD Daily Trend Analysis

2009-07-10T01:20:00.001+10:00

The Euro was unable to make any great headway during European trading on Wednesday and had a generally weaker tone. Risk appetite deteriorated again during the day which undermined demand for the Euro and also triggered fresh defensive support for the US currency while the sharp decline in commodity prices was also important in supporting the US currency

Euro-zone GDP was left unrevised at a decline of 2.5% for the first-quarter final reading while the annual drop was slightly larger than expected, although the impact was limited. The German industrial data was sharply stronger than expected for the second successive day with industrial production rising 3.7% for May following a revised 2.6% decline the previous month.

New US consumer credit declined for the fourth consecutive month according to the latest data, illustrating that consumer spending levels will tend to be subdued and this will maintain a mood of caution over US and global growth prospects.

G8 officials were generally cautious over the economic outlook with comments that there were signs of stabilisation while there were still important risks remaining.

The comments contributed to the generally cautious tone surrounding risk appetite and the Euro weakened further to lows below 1.3850 during US trading before staging a recovery as Wall Street rallied. There were no major comments on the dollar, although markets will inevitably remain on alert for remarks on reserve diversification.

By: Darrell Jobman

GBP/USD Daily Trend Analysis

2009-07-08T23:44:00.000+10:00

Sterling was unable to break back above the 1.63 level against the dollar on Tuesday and had a generally weaker tone despite rally attempts.

The industrial data was significantly weaker than expected with a 0.6% decline in industrial output for May following a revised 0.2% increase the previous month with manufacturing output also declining.

The NIESR reported a 0.4% GDP decline in the three months to May following a revised 1.3% decline the previous month. The institute reversed its view that the economy had bottomed in April and stated that conditions were now broadly stagnant.

The data overall will tend to be a negative factor for Sterling as it will raise further doubts over recovery prospects which will also tend to reinforce the serious underlying government debt fears.

The UK currency was unsettled by fresh declines on global stock markets and retreated to lows around 1.6120 against the dollar while there was a renewed test of support beyond 0.8620 against the Euro. Speculation over further Bank of England quantitative measures at Thursday’s meeting will tend to unsettle the currency over the next 24 hours.

By: Darrell Jobman

USD/JPY Signal Trend Analysis

2009-07-08T23:42:00.001+10:00

Any comments from the Finance Ministry will be watched very closely if there is any evidence of accelerated dollar selling below the important support region around the 95 level. There is also a strong probability that there will be additional capital outflows from Japan on yen rallies which will make it difficult for the Japanese currency to sustain gains.

The yen will still tend to gain some support if fears over the global recovery intensify as trends in risk appetite remain very important. Asian stock markets stabilised on Tuesday, although gains were very limited and the yen held a firm tone as there was a flow into shorter-dated bonds and more defensive instruments.

The dollar was unable to regain the 95.50 level and retreated again in New York, undermined by reports of BIS sell orders and a slide on Wall Street.

By: Darrell Jobman

EUR/USD Daily Trend Analysis

2009-07-08T23:37:00.001+10:00

The Euro was initially blocked near the 1.40 level against the dollar on Tuesday and re-tested lows near 1.39 before finding fresh support in choppy trading conditions.

The German factory orders data was sharply stronger than expected with a 4.4% monthly increase in orders compared with expectations of a marginal increase. The data will increase hopes that the economy has hit a low point and should alleviate underlying fears to some extent, although confidence will inevitably remain very fragile.

Following the data, the Euro pushed to highs near 1.4050 as risk appetite attempted to stabilise.

Comments from officials on the dollar and international reserve policies will remain extremely important, especially with the G8 meetings starting on Wednesday.

There has been further speculation that officials will cast doubt on the dollar’s medium-term role as the principal reserve currency. French officials stated that the summit was not the place to discuss currencies which will dampen expectations of significant comments.

There also appears little incentive for global policy-makers to talk down the dollar and the US currency may, therefore, secure some relief during and after the meetings, especially if there are supportive comments. As risk appetite deteriorated again, the US currency pushed back to near 1.39 during New York trading.

By: Darrell Jobman

Chart Pattern in Trading

2009-07-08T23:34:00.001+10:00

The markets have an intriguing tendency to do the ‘same thing’ over and over again but usually with a different cast of characters. Over the past few years, for example, the energy sector has been strong through the first half of the year even as the beneficiaries of the positive trend have changed.

At top right we show a chart of oil refiner Valero (VLO) from 2007. The strong energy price trend in 2007 was dominated by a perception that gasoline inventories were too low which led to price appreciation for the refiners. The uranium stocks were also very strong.

At middle right we show Arch Coal (ACI) from 2008. The energy theme focused on the natural gas and coal stocks last year leading to a price peak for ACI in June.

Below right we feature a chart of Petrobras (PBR). The energy theme this year was more a function of a rebound in Chinese and Brazilian growth following peaks for the long end of the U.S. Treasury market and dollar.

The point, however, is that even though the focus of the positive energy trend varied from year to year the relationship with the bond market remained consistent. The peak for 10-year U.S. Treasury yields was made in middle of 2006, 2007, and 2008 marking the end the commodity price push. While we expect energy and metals prices to be lower into the late autumn the ‘stop’ on this view would be a 4% 10-year Treasury yield. If yields were to break to new highs then the pattern will have been broken.

By: Kevin Klombies

GBP/USD Signal Trend Analysis

2009-07-08T02:32:00.000+10:00

The UK currency was blocked around 1.6325 against the dollar in Europe on Monday and weakened sharply with lows just below 1.61 as US markets opened. Sterling also weakened to beyond 0.8630 against the Euro with sharp losses against the yen.

Sterling was undermined by further speculation that the Bank of England would increase the size of its quantitative easing gilt purchases at the policy meeting this week. There were also continuing fears over the debt outlook as the government looked to curb spending levels.

The UK currency was also unsettled by the wider deterioration in risk appetite. Confidence was underpinned later in the US session by a recovery in global stock markets and Sterling pushed back to 1.6250 later on Monday. Choppy trading is liable to continue with Sterling finding support beyond the 0.86 level against the Euro.

EUR/USD Signal Trend Analysis

2009-07-08T01:38:00.002+10:00

Weekly Trend direction: Short

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.4200

Key resistance levels: 1.4000/20, 1.4040, 1.4080

Today's trade suggestion:

The holiday on Friday was a non-event and the euro remained weak against the dollar. This means that we now have a weak close to last week, with a “dark cloud cover” candle pattern highlighting the weakness. For this reason, we have chosen to trade this week short, whilst below the weekly reversal level at 1.4200. Clear resistance lies just above at 1.4000/20 – the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the underside of the (now broken) rising trend line. If this level doesn’t hold, allow for a further rally to circa 1.4080 before re-selling the euro. Target for short trades at this stage is 1.3750 and then 1.3500.

GBP/USD Signal Trend Analysis

2009-07-08T01:34:00.002+10:00

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.6750

Key resistance levels: 1.6350, 1.6420, 1.6500

Today's trade suggestion:

An extremely interesting chart pattern has emerged for the pound. Having failed to cement the break out of the top of the range channel last week, the pound has collapsed back to the bottom of the range. To add to that, the weekly candle pattern last week was a “bearish engulfing pattern” which has caused us to reverse the weekly direction to short? We’ll now look to sell into rallies to key resistance levels, with the first target at the range bottom at around 1.6200. Important resistance levels lies either side of 1.6400 (1.6380–1.6420) Watch and wait for a clear reversal signal before selling - target 1.6200. Aggressive traders can hold shorts into 1.6200, and add to shorts on a bounce from 1.6200, with a break below targeting 1.6000.

USD/JPY Signal Trend Analysis

2009-07-08T01:32:00.002+10:00

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 95.00

Key support levels: 95.00/20

Today's trade suggestion:

A weekly reversal to long from the base at around 95.00 means that we are back to the same old range between 95.00 and 100.00 (most of the time). It may well be that 95.00 is as low as the dollar is going to get in the next few months (if it holds this week) and our strategy is to buy dollars for a rally back to 98.00 and then 100.00. As we are so close to the weekly reversal level at 95.00, the strategy is now very simple. Buy at 95.20/95.00, stops under 94.80, with a target of 98.00 – 100.00. If 95.00 doesn’t hold, then the weekly direction will have reversed again to short, and we’ll have to stay out of this pair until next week.

EUR/USD Daily Trend Analysis

2009-07-07T01:13:00.001+10:00

The Euro was unable to push back above the 1.4150 level against the dollar on Thursday and was generally weaker over the day. Euro-zone unemployment hit a 10-year high of 9.5% according to the latest data which was a slight negative factor for the Euro. The currency was also unsettled by a further Irish credit-rating downgrade by Moody’s. The dollar secured some relief from a round of more supportive comments from Chinese officials as the debate surrounding reserve currencies continues.

As expected, the ECB left interest rates on hold at 1.0% following the latest council meeting. Despite voicing concerns over the 2009 outlook, bank President Trichet was generally neutral in his comments over the economy and interest rates and his comments overall suggested that the bank is in a holding pattern to await further developments in the real economy. Trichet was keen to emphasise that the bank had prepared an exit strategy if there was any evidence of inflation risks.

The headline US employment data was weaker than expected with a payroll decline of 467,000 for June following a revised 322,000 the previous month. The unemployment rate increase was slightly lower than expected with an increase to a 26-year high of 9.5% from 9.4%.

The secondary elements in the data continued to give significant cause for concern with a decline in weekly hours while the unemployment increase was held back by a decline in the workforce which will maintain fears over the consumer spending outlook. Jobless claims also remained above the 600,000 level in the latest week at 614,000.

Risk appetite was generally weaker following the US employment report and this helped push the Euro weaker against the US currency, although there was support just below the 1.40 level. Choppy trading may be a risk on Friday with the US markets closed.

By: Darrell Jobman

CHF Trend Analysis

2009-07-07T01:09:00.000+10:00

The dollar found support below 1.0750 against the franc on Thursday, but still found it difficult to make strong headway with gains capped just above 1.0850.

National Bank member Jordan again warned that the bank stood ready to intervene if necessary in the market if the franc threatened to make renewed gains. The Swiss currency weakened temporarily, although it resisted heavy selling pressure.

The franc will tend to gain some degree of support if there is a sustained deterioration in international risk appetite and weaker stock markets helped it gain ground in New York.

By: Darrell Jobman

GBP Trend Analysis

2009-07-07T01:08:00.002+10:00

The UK currency was unable to regain the 1.65 level during Thursday and weakened to lows around 1.6320. Sterling proved to be broadly resilient following the US payroll data and edged back towards the 1.64 level later in New York trading. Sterling found support weaker than the 0.86 level against the Euro.

The construction PMI index for June weakened to 44.5 from 45.9 previously, ending the run of improvements seen over the past few months. The UK PMI services-sector data will be watched closely on Friday. Any monthly deterioration would tend to undermine confidence in the UK currency, although the impact should be limited if the index holds above the 50 level.

Sterling will also be much more vulnerable if there is a general deterioration in risk appetite even though it proved to be generally resilient on Thursday.

By: Darrell Jobman

Japanese Yen Trend Analysis

2009-07-07T01:08:00.001+10:00

The yen gained some respite in Asian trading on Thursday with markets turning more cautious ahead of the US payroll release

The Japanese political situation will also be watched closely with further speculation that an election will be called within the next two weeks. The dollar was holding around 96.60 in early Europe in generally tentative conditions.

As global stock markets weakened following the US employment data, the yen strengthened back to 95.80 against the dollar and 134.40 against the Euro.

By: Darrell Jobman

GOLD and SILVER Technical Trend

2009-07-03T01:33:00.005+10:00

August gold futures closed up $13.60 at $941.00 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday and were supported by solidly lower U.S. dollar. Trading has turned choppy again in gold.

Prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend, but solid follow-through buying on Thursday and a bullish weekly high close would negate the downtrend and provide bulls with fresh upside technical momentum.

Bears' next downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $913.20. Gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $949.00. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $947.00 and then at $949.00. Support is seen at $935.00 and then at $930.00.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software
By: Jim Wyckoff

EUR/USD Daily Trend

2009-07-03T01:28:00.006+10:00

The dollar was unable to break Euro support in the 1.40 area on Wednesday and had a generally weaker tone during the day. The Euro gained some initial support from a slightly stronger than expected German retail sales report while global risk appetite was also generally firmer.

The US economic data was mixed and did not have a decisive impact on trading. The ISM index for the manufacturing sector rose to 44.8 in June from 42.8 the previous month which was marginally above expectations, although there was some disappointment that the orders index slipped back to below the 50.0 level which suggested an important risk that any recovery in the industrial sector will stall relatively quickly.

The ADP report recorded a private-sector employment decline of 473,000 for June after a revised 485,000 drop the previous month. Elsewhere, there was a marginal increase in pending home sales while construction spending edged lower for the month.

The dollar weakened sharply in US trading following a report that the Chinese authorities had called for the issue of global reserve policies and the introduction of a new reserve currency to be discussed at the G8 meetings next week. The Euro strengthened to a high at the 1.42 level before consolidation around 1.4150.

There will be the risk of high volatility on Thursday with the US employment release and the latest ECB policy decision. The Euro will be vulnerable to selling pressure if the ECB announces any additional quantitative easing measures.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

By: Darrell Jobman

Major Currencies Trend - 1 July

2009-07-02T00:51:00.002+10:00

EUR/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Long
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3820
Key support levels: 1.3980/1.4000, 1.3940, 1.3890, 1.3820

GBP/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.6180
Key support levels: 1.6450, 1.6360, 1.6250

USD/JPY
Weekly Trend direction: Short
Weekly trend reversal level: 96.60
Key resistance levels: 95.60, 95.80/96.00, 96.50

Gold and Silver Trading Trend

2009-06-19T01:13:00.003+10:00

Gold and Silver are currently on downtrend after their price broke through the first level of support. Long term support for Gold is at $870, and Silver is at $12.

Forex Signals and Trends

2009-06-18T00:46:00.003+10:00

GBP/USD is on bullish mode after breaking another resistance level.

EUR/USD is on upward trend.

USD/CHF is currently on further downtrend.

USD/JPY is on sideways, however daily MA is pointing towards downtrend.

$7,000 Profit From Trading

2009-06-05T00:55:00.004+10:00

FX Trading is worthwhile if we follow the trading signal and system, with the most important part is to be patient. Recently, shorting USD CHF is very profitable with the profit has gone up by more than $7,000.

The remaining outlook: USD Currency is in downtrend.

Forex Signals and Trends

2009-05-25T23:55:00.008+10:00

Below are the current signals and trend for major currencies:

USD/JPY is on downtrend after breaking its support level.

USD/CHF is also on downtrend currently.

GBP/USD is currently on bullish mode after breaking out its resistance level.

EUR/USD is on upward trend.

Japan Nikkei Trend

2009-05-15T01:28:00.003+10:00

Currently, Japan Nikkei Index is on downtrend after price rejection in 9,000 above level.

Support is at 7,000 level.

Make Money Trading Online

2009-05-08T01:21:00.005+10:00

In forex world, fluctuation has many potentials and everyone can make money by trading online. One of the ways to do this is to have a reliable trading technique. People can also follow trading signals which give them the guide on when to buy.

For any reason, technique and signals you are using, ALWAYS remember to put your stop loss. While trading has an unlimited profit potential, you have to limit losses! That is why I will always recommend everyone to put stop loss and take profit limit for each trade.

Below is my trading result for USD CHF by following its downward trend signal.

DOW JONES INDEX REBOUND

2009-05-08T01:13:00.003+10:00

Ever wonder how market falls and recovers? The below screen shot of Dow Jones Industrial Average shows how market rose again after it fell or crashed. Uniquely, it rises even further.

We currently have seen few jumps and markets seem to be recovering now. This could be the same case!

Market Crash Update

2009-04-30T00:15:00.004+10:00

There is a saying: “Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it again.” I believe this applies to current market situation which is relatively not different from the past.

We will always see boom and bust. Currently, we are in the midst of bust, hoping for economic recovery.

I have attached the historical graph of DJIA Index, and together we can learn, that even at the past when market dropped by 50%, it would eventually recover and forming a bullish rally.

Will it be the same case again this time? I think so. What do you think?

EUR USD Currency Trend - FX Trading

2009-04-28T00:22:00.003+10:00

Currently EUR USD is showing a downward trend, especially after it broke the upward trendline.

People who have taken short position from this currency must have benefited for these last 2 days.

Support Level at short term is at 1.3111

Wind energy - Hot future investment

2009-04-23T18:13:00.003+10:00

In light of Obama’s speech during the Earth Day, US will be considering to utilize wind energy as the alternative energy in the future. Obama also mentioned that wind has the potential to generate approximately 20 percent of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030 and create 250,000 jobs.

The prospect looks good as it will create more employment as well as clean energy.

Below is the excerpt from what Obama said during his visit to Iowa:

"The nation that leads the world in creating new sources of clean energy will be the nation that leads the 21st century global economy,"

"America can be that nation. America must be that nation."

"The choice we face is not between saving our environment and saving our economy, it's a choice between prosperity and decline,"

"As with so many clean energy investments, it's win-win: good for environment and great for our economy,"

The below is a file from Wikimedia Commons.

Stocks and Indexes Trading - Bull trap in bear market

2009-04-23T01:39:00.006+10:00

Recently, we saw continuous rally in US, Europe and Aussie markets. One question crossed in my mind. Is this a fake rally in bear market? Well, some believe so. Others believe that markets are recovering.

Few days ago, I saw resistance in Aussie Index and predicted that market will drop because the price has not surpassed the resistance level.

As you can see in the below chart, the market drop again after failing to reach higher high.

Despite many thoughts and analysis, whether it is a fake rally or recovering market, time will tell!

Learn from History

2009-04-22T01:42:00.007+10:00

It is always good to learn from history and the chart below shows that with every bust, there will be boom. Of course, whenever there is boom that creates bubble, eventually there will be bust.

Market may recover over times. And now, I believe everyone can see how significant it is if we can pick the bottom of the market.

Make $2.7 million!!

2009-04-17T00:51:00.004+10:00

Now I know this is not really related to forex trading. But making huge money is possible and there is always a way to achieve so.

I just read an interesting article about Obama and I believe sharing this will be worthwhile.

Whenever you have dream and will, they will lead to efforts which may create results! You can read the article about Obama in here. Happy reading!

AUD Rally - FX Trading

2009-04-12T00:32:00.005+10:00

The 0.25% rate cut by the RBA did not hold the uptrend of the AUD.

Current resistance is sitting at 0.7287 and once it breaks this level, AUD has the potential to rise even further!

GBP USD Uptrend - FX Trading

2009-04-11T21:08:00.003+10:00

GBP USD is continuing its uptrend.

Previous support is at 1.4102 and currently, new support is at 1.4568

GBP USD Trend - FX Trading

2009-03-31T23:09:00.004+11:00

GBP USD is trending up after breakout!

Support is also good at 1.402 level.

HUGE DROP!

2009-03-27T01:26:00.004+11:00

Shortseller, watch this!!

A sudden drop in price. Therefore, it is always important to put your STOP LOSS to avoid this massive loss if you are in long position!

$2000 PROFIT FROM SHORTSELL

2009-03-21T02:05:00.003+11:00

Finally, my shortsell for USD CHF results in good profit of more than $2,000!

It requires patience and also good analysis, but after all it pays out.

Stay tune with me for updated daily analysis and signal. Happy trading!

Rise of the DOW

2009-03-12T00:35:00.003+11:00

DOW Jones Index rose by more than 5% yesterday after Citibank announced that they are profitable during this recession.

Maximum Profit for shortselling!

2009-03-12T00:32:00.002+11:00

A shocker! USD CHF fell a lot and those who shorted this currency by following signals are currently sitting in handsome profit! Well done!

Gold Rise

2009-03-09T23:54:00.002+11:00

Gold formed a short-term pennant. In the long term, breakout above $1000 would offer a target of $1200: 900 + ( 1000 - 700 ).

30 PIPS TRADE IN FEW MINUTES!

2008-12-07T00:47:00.006+11:00

In trading, support and resistance have important role that detect where the price is heading. The below trade showed that we can make money - 30 pips simply by short sell once USDCHF broke through 1.2235 level. Price went further to 1.2202, making approximately 30 pips in few minutes trade!

EUR/USD TRADE - 30 PIPS

2008-11-08T03:28:00.003+11:00

In today's trade EUR/USD is showing upward trend. Long position should be taken and currently 1.2783 is the support level.

Trader who took long position after breakout at 1.2783 has the potential to gain a handsome 30 pips profit.

AUD/USD BREAKOUT - 85 PIPS IN 2 MINUTES!

2008-11-06T23:13:00.005+11:00

At this volatile market, many unexpected things were happening.

Few minutes ago, we can see a breakout in AUD/USD Chart. Once the price broke 0.6802 level, it then jumped around 88 pips in just 2 minutes!!

We can see the price retreats afterward, and 0.6802 will become the support level at this moment.

LIVE TRADE - AUD/USD, 25 PIPS IN 3 MINUTES!

2008-11-06T00:34:00.004+11:00

At this post, I would like to show live trade for AUD/USD. As we can see, the price has a nice breakout there, earning around 25 pips in 2-3 minutes.

News could be the reason behind this, but what maybe interesting is how the price will react.

Failure to break 0.6930 will drive price lower.

EUR/USD TRADE - 120 PIPS

2008-11-01T15:00:00.004+11:00

In the below trade I will show you how technical analysis work.

Using a simple trendline and breakout, we can see the price broke out at 1.4319 from a big green candle. This price breakout is also supported by Moving Average Crossover.

The price then moves to a new resistance level of 1.4349. In the below chart we can see second breakout, which then moved the price to a higher high.

1.4423 became the new resistance level, as the price then being rejected once it touched that level.

The trade is pretty good, earning 120 pips counted from the first breakout.

GOLD TRADING DIARY - UP BY $43

2008-11-01T14:46:00.002+11:00

This is my entry for GOLD Trading.

Starting by using simple trendline, we can see a breakout at 863.50 level. Supported by both MA Crossover and RSI that's getting stronger, the GOLD Price advanced.

Sharing wisdom in trading: sometimes patience pays, as we can all see the price keep advancing to a higher high. It reached the top price at 879.36.

We can see from the chart above that 879.36 is the new high and once there was a break out, GOLD price advanced really hard. It then reached a new high at 899.66.

This makes the GOLD earned $43 in a day.

DOUBLE TOP - START SHORTSELL!

2008-10-31T00:24:00.004+11:00

In this entry I would like to emphasize the significance of double top.

When there is resistance and price has reached double top, we can expect rejection and price went down as a result.

The below chart showed double top at 907.23 and as a result price dropped before finding its support at 899.66 as per highlighted trendline.

500% INCREASE IN 2 DAYS!

2008-10-30T02:45:00.006+11:00

Amazing things are happening in today's market.

Today's highlight is Volkswagen's shares which went up 95% last night despite rumor and evidence that the world is in the brink of recession.

I have attached charts for learning purposes and we can all see how big the increase was.

If only someone bought the shares 2 days ago, that will be lovely!

Volkswagen's shares in 5 days period. See how they jumped from $200 to $1,000 in 2 days!

Intraday chart: Around 95% increase in a day!

Chart source from: http://finance.yahoo.com

GBP/USD LONG TRADE - $11,600 PROFIT

2008-10-29T02:21:00.004+11:00

We look at GBP/USD trade again.

If you click and preview the chart, GBP/USD was showing resistance at 1.8040 level.

Once there was a break out, it becomes a buy, supported by the Moving Average Crossover.

You can see that 1.8040, which was the previous resistance then became the support level.

In short moment, we can see that the price went up (see the Up Arrow) up to (Check Arrow).

Previous price was 1.8040 and it's becoming 1.8221.

A handsome profit of 181 pips!

GBP/USD LONG TRADE - 65 PIPS!

2008-10-29T02:10:00.006+11:00

In the below post, you can see I took GBP/USD trade.

Using simple technical analysis, we can see support level of 1.7916.

Then, breakout level occurred at 1.7975 level.

As Moving Average crossed on each other too, this is considered as a signal to buy.

We can see the price then shot up to a higher level, with 1.8041 as the new resistance level.

It's a pretty good trade, handing 65 pips profit!

MY TRADING DIARY - $14,000 IN 1 MONTH

2008-10-28T01:19:00.008+11:00

Hi all,

This is my first post and I would like to share my trading result. Please see the below:

I will explain the reason for some of the trades and in my next posts, I will share free analysis in currencies, commodities and shares - depending on the current trend developed.

I hope my sharing and analysis can help us to develop a better strategy, traders!

Any comment, feedback and queries are welcomed!

Thank you!