GBP/USD Daily Trend Analysis

Sterling was unable to break back above the 1.63 level against the dollar on Tuesday and had a generally weaker tone despite rally attempts.

The industrial data was significantly weaker than expected with a 0.6% decline in industrial output for May following a revised 0.2% increase the previous month with manufacturing output also declining.

The NIESR reported a 0.4% GDP decline in the three months to May following a revised 1.3% decline the previous month. The institute reversed its view that the economy had bottomed in April and stated that conditions were now broadly stagnant.

The data overall will tend to be a negative factor for Sterling as it will raise further doubts over recovery prospects which will also tend to reinforce the serious underlying government debt fears.

The UK currency was unsettled by fresh declines on global stock markets and retreated to lows around 1.6120 against the dollar while there was a renewed test of support beyond 0.8620 against the Euro. Speculation over further Bank of England quantitative measures at Thursday’s meeting will tend to unsettle the currency over the next 24 hours.

By: Darrell Jobman

USD/JPY Signal Trend Analysis

Any comments from the Finance Ministry will be watched very closely if there is any evidence of accelerated dollar selling below the important support region around the 95 level. There is also a strong probability that there will be additional capital outflows from Japan on yen rallies which will make it difficult for the Japanese currency to sustain gains.

The yen will still tend to gain some support if fears over the global recovery intensify as trends in risk appetite remain very important. Asian stock markets stabilised on Tuesday, although gains were very limited and the yen held a firm tone as there was a flow into shorter-dated bonds and more defensive instruments.

The dollar was unable to regain the 95.50 level and retreated again in New York, undermined by reports of BIS sell orders and a slide on Wall Street.

By: Darrell Jobman

EUR/USD Daily Trend Analysis

The Euro was initially blocked near the 1.40 level against the dollar on Tuesday and re-tested lows near 1.39 before finding fresh support in choppy trading conditions.

The German factory orders data was sharply stronger than expected with a 4.4% monthly increase in orders compared with expectations of a marginal increase. The data will increase hopes that the economy has hit a low point and should alleviate underlying fears to some extent, although confidence will inevitably remain very fragile.

Following the data, the Euro pushed to highs near 1.4050 as risk appetite attempted to stabilise.

Comments from officials on the dollar and international reserve policies will remain extremely important, especially with the G8 meetings starting on Wednesday.

There has been further speculation that officials will cast doubt on the dollar’s medium-term role as the principal reserve currency. French officials stated that the summit was not the place to discuss currencies which will dampen expectations of significant comments.

There also appears little incentive for global policy-makers to talk down the dollar and the US currency may, therefore, secure some relief during and after the meetings, especially if there are supportive comments. As risk appetite deteriorated again, the US currency pushed back to near 1.39 during New York trading.

By: Darrell Jobman

EUR/USD Signal Trend Analysis

Weekly Trend direction: Short

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.4200

Key resistance levels: 1.4000/20, 1.4040, 1.4080

Today's trade suggestion:

The holiday on Friday was a non-event and the euro remained weak against the dollar. This means that we now have a weak close to last week, with a “dark cloud cover” candle pattern highlighting the weakness. For this reason, we have chosen to trade this week short, whilst below the weekly reversal level at 1.4200. Clear resistance lies just above at 1.4000/20 – the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the underside of the (now broken) rising trend line. If this level doesn’t hold, allow for a further rally to circa 1.4080 before re-selling the euro. Target for short trades at this stage is 1.3750 and then 1.3500.

GBP/USD Signal Trend Analysis

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.6750

Key resistance levels: 1.6350, 1.6420, 1.6500

Today's trade suggestion:

An extremely interesting chart pattern has emerged for the pound. Having failed to cement the break out of the top of the range channel last week, the pound has collapsed back to the bottom of the range. To add to that, the weekly candle pattern last week was a “bearish engulfing pattern” which has caused us to reverse the weekly direction to short? We’ll now look to sell into rallies to key resistance levels, with the first target at the range bottom at around 1.6200. Important resistance levels lies either side of 1.6400 (1.6380–1.6420) Watch and wait for a clear reversal signal before selling - target 1.6200. Aggressive traders can hold shorts into 1.6200, and add to shorts on a bounce from 1.6200, with a break below targeting 1.6000.

USD/JPY Signal Trend Analysis

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 95.00

Key support levels: 95.00/20

Today's trade suggestion:

A weekly reversal to long from the base at around 95.00 means that we are back to the same old range between 95.00 and 100.00 (most of the time). It may well be that 95.00 is as low as the dollar is going to get in the next few months (if it holds this week) and our strategy is to buy dollars for a rally back to 98.00 and then 100.00. As we are so close to the weekly reversal level at 95.00, the strategy is now very simple. Buy at 95.20/95.00, stops under 94.80, with a target of 98.00 – 100.00. If 95.00 doesn’t hold, then the weekly direction will have reversed again to short, and we’ll have to stay out of this pair until next week.

EUR/USD Daily Trend Analysis

The Euro was unable to push back above the 1.4150 level against the dollar on Thursday and was generally weaker over the day. Euro-zone unemployment hit a 10-year high of 9.5% according to the latest data which was a slight negative factor for the Euro. The currency was also unsettled by a further Irish credit-rating downgrade by Moody’s. The dollar secured some relief from a round of more supportive comments from Chinese officials as the debate surrounding reserve currencies continues.

As expected, the ECB left interest rates on hold at 1.0% following the latest council meeting. Despite voicing concerns over the 2009 outlook, bank President Trichet was generally neutral in his comments over the economy and interest rates and his comments overall suggested that the bank is in a holding pattern to await further developments in the real economy. Trichet was keen to emphasise that the bank had prepared an exit strategy if there was any evidence of inflation risks.

The headline US employment data was weaker than expected with a payroll decline of 467,000 for June following a revised 322,000 the previous month. The unemployment rate increase was slightly lower than expected with an increase to a 26-year high of 9.5% from 9.4%.

The secondary elements in the data continued to give significant cause for concern with a decline in weekly hours while the unemployment increase was held back by a decline in the workforce which will maintain fears over the consumer spending outlook. Jobless claims also remained above the 600,000 level in the latest week at 614,000.

Risk appetite was generally weaker following the US employment report and this helped push the Euro weaker against the US currency, although there was support just below the 1.40 level. Choppy trading may be a risk on Friday with the US markets closed.

By: Darrell Jobman

CHF Trend Analysis

The dollar found support below 1.0750 against the franc on Thursday, but still found it difficult to make strong headway with gains capped just above 1.0850.

National Bank member Jordan again warned that the bank stood ready to intervene if necessary in the market if the franc threatened to make renewed gains. The Swiss currency weakened temporarily, although it resisted heavy selling pressure.

The franc will tend to gain some degree of support if there is a sustained deterioration in international risk appetite and weaker stock markets helped it gain ground in New York.

By: Darrell Jobman

GBP Trend Analysis

The UK currency was unable to regain the 1.65 level during Thursday and weakened to lows around 1.6320. Sterling proved to be broadly resilient following the US payroll data and edged back towards the 1.64 level later in New York trading. Sterling found support weaker than the 0.86 level against the Euro.

The construction PMI index for June weakened to 44.5 from 45.9 previously, ending the run of improvements seen over the past few months. The UK PMI services-sector data will be watched closely on Friday. Any monthly deterioration would tend to undermine confidence in the UK currency, although the impact should be limited if the index holds above the 50 level.

Sterling will also be much more vulnerable if there is a general deterioration in risk appetite even though it proved to be generally resilient on Thursday.

By: Darrell Jobman

Japanese Yen Trend Analysis

The yen gained some respite in Asian trading on Thursday with markets turning more cautious ahead of the US payroll release

The Japanese political situation will also be watched closely with further speculation that an election will be called within the next two weeks. The dollar was holding around 96.60 in early Europe in generally tentative conditions.

As global stock markets weakened following the US employment data, the yen strengthened back to 95.80 against the dollar and 134.40 against the Euro.

By: Darrell Jobman

EUR/USD Daily Trend

The dollar was unable to break Euro support in the 1.40 area on Wednesday and had a generally weaker tone during the day. The Euro gained some initial support from a slightly stronger than expected German retail sales report while global risk appetite was also generally firmer.

The US economic data was mixed and did not have a decisive impact on trading. The ISM index for the manufacturing sector rose to 44.8 in June from 42.8 the previous month which was marginally above expectations, although there was some disappointment that the orders index slipped back to below the 50.0 level which suggested an important risk that any recovery in the industrial sector will stall relatively quickly.

The ADP report recorded a private-sector employment decline of 473,000 for June after a revised 485,000 drop the previous month. Elsewhere, there was a marginal increase in pending home sales while construction spending edged lower for the month.

The dollar weakened sharply in US trading following a report that the Chinese authorities had called for the issue of global reserve policies and the introduction of a new reserve currency to be discussed at the G8 meetings next week. The Euro strengthened to a high at the 1.42 level before consolidation around 1.4150.

There will be the risk of high volatility on Thursday with the US employment release and the latest ECB policy decision. The Euro will be vulnerable to selling pressure if the ECB announces any additional quantitative easing measures.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

By: Darrell Jobman

Major Currencies Trend - 1 July

EUR/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Long
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3820
Key support levels: 1.3980/1.4000, 1.3940, 1.3890, 1.3820

GBP/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.6180
Key support levels: 1.6450, 1.6360, 1.6250

USD/JPY
Weekly Trend direction: Short
Weekly trend reversal level: 96.60
Key resistance levels: 95.60, 95.80/96.00, 96.50

Forex Signals and Trends

GBP/USD is on bullish mode after breaking another resistance level.

EUR/USD is on upward trend.

USD/CHF is currently on further downtrend.

USD/JPY is on sideways, however daily MA is pointing towards downtrend.

Forex Signals and Trends

Below are the current signals and trend for major currencies:

USD/JPY is on downtrend after breaking its support level.

USD/CHF is also on downtrend currently.

GBP/USD is currently on bullish mode after breaking out its resistance level.

EUR/USD is on upward trend.

Make Money Trading Online

In forex world, fluctuation has many potentials and everyone can make money by trading online. One of the ways to do this is to have a reliable trading technique. People can also follow trading signals which give them the guide on when to buy.

For any reason, technique and signals you are using, ALWAYS remember to put your stop loss. While trading has an unlimited profit potential, you have to limit losses! That is why I will always recommend everyone to put stop loss and take profit limit for each trade.

Below is my trading result for USD CHF by following its downward trend signal.

EUR USD Currency Trend - FX Trading

Currently EUR USD is showing a downward trend, especially after it broke the upward trendline.

People who have taken short position from this currency must have benefited for these last 2 days.

Support Level at short term is at 1.3111

AUD Rally - FX Trading

The 0.25% rate cut by the RBA did not hold the uptrend of the AUD.

Current resistance is sitting at 0.7287 and once it breaks this level, AUD has the potential to rise even further!

GBP USD Uptrend - FX Trading

GBP USD is continuing its uptrend.

Previous support is at 1.4102 and currently, new support is at 1.4568

GBP USD Trend - FX Trading

GBP USD is trending up after breakout!

Support is also good at 1.402 level.

Maximum Profit for shortselling!

A shocker! USD CHF fell a lot and those who shorted this currency by following signals are currently sitting in handsome profit! Well done!